NFL Situation Spotlight – # 109: Offensive holding penalties (OHP)
Author: Dennis Arthur
Those of you who have had the opportunity to read some of my previous articles, may have found a commercial examines the predictive power Play-back Sanctions book, flags occurs when ventilation is usually in the attack. Penalty appeals fall into this category include crimes such as intentional receivers ineligible land, changes and illegal movements, too many field men, and so on.
PSSP are not the only measure of team penalties proved to be a viable tool for the propagation of disability: Offensive calls also expected the basis for a situation that has produced great benefits in the last 7 years – a situation that was highly effective, even if one of the main causes.
The state in which I speak is simple and consists of teams that currently have higher average per game of offense against the holding Sanctions (OHPA) more than his opponent.
It has, for example, a team that has played 4 matches and scored 9 times in the offensive operation during this stretch, one OHPA 2.25 (9 / 4) and is therefore subject to the logic of this situation when facing an opponent with an average of 2.24 or less OHPA.
As Not surprisingly, teams with greater OHPA not a good bet in the last 7 seasons. You might be surprised but rather how it went.
Since 2001, teams were more OHPA brutal 518-602 (46.3%) ATS when playing between week 4 and 15, creating a profit of $ 3220.00 for 10/11 $ 110.00 contradict Paris against the team in question. Not bad for a relatively simple situation with 1 primary (OHPA condition> OHPA OP) and a "secondary clause (ie 'vague') excluding the games very early and very late in the season.
One thing that learned through the process of stopping hundreds of NFL games over the last decade-or-SO and explore countless trends during this period is that statistics are "off the beaten track" are generally those that produce the most profitable stand alone 'trends' – ie those based on a single condition, or at least a minimum of conditions.
You will have great difficulty finding another position on the basis of the measures most common computer skills such as land and spending statistics, which could produce a similar result + / – 85 wins ATS in 1000-1100 a stretch of play, especially when only one block of "construction" or "main condition".
The reason for this is really quite simple: Most of us know that Vegas sets the line in the NFL based mainly on the perception of the Armed Forces Team. This is a point that even the most novice handicaps are aware of those days. Bookmakers get your 10% 'Vig' little matter who wins, losses and has always been of interest to establish the lines which produce the balanced action to help minimize the risk of order to maximize immediate and long-term benefits term.
With the knowledge gap of a point is more a product of public opinion that the current level of computer skills, in many cases is quite safe to assume that the statistics that help shape public opinion will probably be less effective in the dissemination of disability than others, statistics can be as effective as "fly under the radar" Most of the handicaps there. Those who follow the stock market will be familiar with this concept, known as the theory of efficient markets.
As an example: if everyone does his Paris based solely on the season-to-date additional points for each team, Vegas would adjust their lines of this and using a method of picking teams based on points scored alone, eventually produce a fat 0 the value of income, if this is a loss in the long term.
This example is an oversimplification, of course, and the stakes are usually more things into consideration in Paris. However, there are some statistics and variables used more often than not average handicapper, week after week.
With the departure of doubt, by land and spend the statistics are measures of choice for most novices to handicappers intermediate with other more obvious, such as points scored and allowed, "power number" data in the report of injuries and recent head to head results. Most people base their betting decisions in the statistics as both are easy to find and easy to understand.
Since financial markets, but following the herd "is most likely to lead you (and your money) on the side of a cliff, instead of" Pot of Gold ", and the same rules apply when the disability Paris sports market.
This does not mean that statistics keystones in issues such as efficiency of a ground team and passing game are ignored. Instead, I use these basic measures (expressed in meters per game differential) within a range of situations in my success. However, Other conditions numbers usually must be added to are really adequate to predict the winners of propagation.
Returning for a moment sanctions – Beyond the penalty yards as the basis for each team in the final boxscore, the types and frequency of certain penalties on teams that are largely ignored by 99.5% of all handicaps, and for the reasons mentioned above, these key statistics will also be a factor that is not too into the line as a result.
Calls fines are not the only facet of suffering NFL Play to the lack of attention, despite its ability to identify profitable situations against the spread.
It happens to be a good number of other gems that statistics are also included in the "forgotten" and one such area of special teams play and, more specifically, the king of this category – KRYF, meaning Kick-off Return Yards (on average).
KRYF Stat is a critic who is on my list "of numbers in the NFL no good handicapper should be directed aux-out.
It acts as a barometer of the overall strength of the task forces on special teams play the most important of all: the kick return.
Kick-off is an event critical because of its ability to change the momentum of the game in a heartbeat and provide an opportunity for a team to swallow them quickly yards crucial can give decent field position, which is the key to any chance of victory, whether known or TTY.
Nothing deflates a team that just finished putting points in the table, an opponent that runs behind the back kick dam 40 meters, and we all know that the effect of missing a player like Chicago, a specialist in change, Devin Hester, the outcome may have a game in the blink of an eye.
The league average for KRYF is usually around 22-yards per return. Good teams are find an average of about 25, while bad teams are set back about 19 yards per return.
KYRF is a statistic that I use much, and is to be the basis of one of the 2 other primary conditions is still under discussion. The inclusion of an original OHPA participation, this powerful "Trio" Carrying negative factors to the team's bad luck to meet all the criteria in question.
Here's how KRYF factors in things: "I found that teams that have a higher OHPA and KRYF below its current opponent, were very low, 245-332 (42.5%) ATS since 2001, almost double the profit realized only in OHPA search $ 6250.00.
As with OHPA makes sense for teams at a disadvantage regarding KRYF are a poor bet against the spread. The surprise here, again, is how beneficial it has been historically, when you bet against this equipment on the basis of these 2 simple factors alone.
Now, we are not totally finished. The final stipulation is significant I would also add special units, in this case – a comparison of gross and net Punt Yardage Punt Yards in the current team of the opponent it is included.
Subtracting net Punt Yards (yards a punt made after the return is taken into account and any penalties against the demilitarization of the equipment) Gross Yards Punt (the distance actually run a punt where the ball is broken) is an excellent way to test the ability of a team that: a) run a successful punt and B) effectively cover the return that followed.
Teams with poor punt coverage unit or take more than the average of the sanctions in the book itself, seeing a growing gap between their GPYF and NPYF. The teams that have a gambler below average also fell NPYF by extension, a smaller kicks are at increased risk for high returns, if the staff does not cover long enough to get into position.
The average difference between a computer GPYF happens NPYF and 6 meters.
Excluding GPYF opponents who have a minimum of 7 feet higher than its NPYF that effectively eliminate the opponents do not have the skills to clearance of low coverage, or a small bettor. Ultimately, this is a new blow against the equipment and other factors already mentioned itching.
In short: Teams that have a higher average yards per game high in the offensive holding penalties (OHPA) with a lower average per game of Kick-off Return To (KRYF) – both of his current opponent – are 142-244 (36.8%) ATS since 2001 as a gross figure of Punt Yards this adversary is not more than 7 feet higher than your network Punt Yards per game.
Based on these 3 primary conditions (with the regulator as soon as things bordering on the week 4 to 15), we have a tendency to has been a consistent winner since '01 and there was a profit of $ 8780.00 a 10/11 chance during this period.
Rounding things, limits are 2 finals, one of which excludes equipment that have experienced a season of difficult days schedule (SOS> 0,600), while the other excludes the lower of> = 7 points. With the addition of these 2 conditions end, the recording is reduced to 89-190 (31.9%) ATS – a murderer that the situation was a predictor of lethal outcomes of ATS, 7 years running.
A brief look at the statistics below show that this trend is balanced, has played in every single league team except one. And is divided fairly evenly between the favs and dogs, as well as home and away teams.
Here details.
(Notes: ASMR is the average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than the average on line, negative – weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league who have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of computers that are 500 or more and SPR is the path difference for the teams in this situation. For details, see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)
Situational Trend # 109 Summary
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
Offensive 1) against the average sentence Holding (OHPA)> opponent.
2) Kick-off Return Yards Average d '(KRYF) 3) the opponent Punt Yard gross average (GPYF) is within 7 meters of its average net Punt (NPYF).
Secondary Conditions (stretchers)
1) game of the week is between 4 and 15.
2) The team is not one of Underdog> = 7 points.
3) Strength of Schedule (SOS), the season to date is
Location Stats
Rams: -0.5
% Home: 57.4
Dog%: 44.9
TDIS%: 96.9
Wt%: 54.7
SPR: -1.0
Top teams: TB (18), buf (16) MIN (16) MIA (15)
Record Status
General (since '01): ATS 89-190
2007 Season: 10-26 ATS
2006 Season: 9-19 ATS
2005 Season: 11-32 ATS
2004 Season: 17-32 ATS
The last 3 results. Choose between parentheses.
2007 WK15 – TEN 26 KC 17 (TEN -3.5) W
2007 WK15 – JAC 29 PIT 22 (JAC 3.5) W
2007 WK15 – 8 CLE BUF 0 (CLE -6) W
About the author:
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and football fan American, has provided an innovative analysis based on point of the NFL against the spread Vegas since 1999. For more challenge-oriented features selections like this as well as expert advice and the winning team against the spread, visit their website http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
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